Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,275 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.7% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Doing this a little early today, so haven’t seen all the lines, but this was the best one of what I’ve seen:
Atlantic 10 Tournament: St. Bonaventure vs. Saint Louis
There are two possible narratives here that could be pushing this line to where it’s at.
The first is that because the Bonnies play a thin rotation, they’ll be more fatigued from playing yesterday than the Billikens. I haven’t done enough research to say whether this might be correct, but consider me skeptical.
The second is that SLU’s getting its legs back under it after a rocky return from its long Covid hiatus. This is possibly true as well, but Saint Louis’s KenPom ranking has been rather stable this year, especially of late.
You can buy into either of those and hold off on this one. I’m gonna take it.
Pick: St. Bonaventure +2 (-110). Low confidence.
