Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,034 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just the one market today, with MLB futures off for the weekend.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 50–35–1, we’re up 9.22 units, we’re up 11% (the average line on our winners has been –113). April was great, May was bad, June has been good.
Arizona @ San Francisco
It’s unclear how the Giants will handle this particular bullpen game, but with bullpen games in general, they’ve been doing a good job. That’s part of how, with a three-man rotation, they’ve passed the Dodgers and closed the loss-column gap with the Diamondbacks to two.
We don’t love betting against Merrill Kelly. He’s a bulldog. But he’s had some home run issues lately, and we really like these Giants. Especially that bullpen.
Pick: San Francisco to win +100. Low confidence. (Kelly and Walker must start.)
