Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,455 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.7% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Milwaukee @ Colorado
Every now and then, we and the market reach an impasse, and the same bet keeps showing up every few days in a row.
Often, the difference is park factor, but we don’t get a ton of overs at Coors Field to show up, so I’m guessing this is more about our differing perceptions of the Brewers’ offense, which projections say should be fine right now while season-to-date results have been rough. That’s the disagreement. Form your own conclusions. Pushed on Thursday, won by half a run last night but it took an extra inning.
Pick: Over 10.5 (-115). Low confidence.
