Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,028 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just the one market today, with MLB futures taking the weekend off.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 46–32–1, we’re up 7.19 units, we’re up 9% (the average line on our winners has been –117). April was great, May was bad, June has been good so far.
St. Louis @ New York (NL)
Kodai Senga has been great this year when pitching on more than normal rest, with a FIP of 3.77 in those games. In games where he’s had at least one extra day of rest beforehand, the numbers don’t get better, but it’s hard to imagine extra rest hurts, and he throws after six off days tonight. With Adam Wainwright still getting by mostly through managing hard contact, we like the Mets in this one.
Pick: New York (NL) to win –157. Low confidence. (Wainwright and Senga must start.)
