Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,447 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.8% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just a future today, and the line for it comes from Bovada due to the lack of a current/accurate Vegas consensus.
NL West
We have one unit down on the Padres already at +310, and this is finally positive value, albeit narrowly, with a strong likelihood it will not stay that way. It’s possible the Giants will win this division, but it’s much more likely that the Padres will come back and take it, and it’s much, much more likely that the Dodgers will take care of business. This gives us a structure in which we get our money back if the Dodgers win, we win a little money if the Padres win, and our overall probability of profiting off the division portion of our futures portfolio is now up over 80%.
Pick: Los Angeles to win -200. Medium confidence.
