Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,049 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just the one market today, with MLB futures off. If you weren’t here yesterday. We’re going to do MLB futures on Monday. We’ll still take three more weekdays off of these at some point in July, likely still next week, but we don’t know which days yet. It’s going to depend on how markets are or aren’t moving and what our portfolio needs.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 55–43–2, we’re up 6.99 units, we’re up 7% (the average line on our winners has been –110). April was great, May was bad, June was good. We’re off to a good start in July.
Philadelphia @ Miami
The Phillies stole the Marlins’ soul last night, and they’re in a good position to do it again today. Both teams used a good amount of bullpen, but the Phillies have the deeper one, and overall? For as valuable as we’ve recently found the Marlins to be in futures markets, the Phillies are the better team. Braxton Garrett turning in an awesome start two weeks ago isn’t enough to change that.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +111. Low confidence. (Suárez and Garrett must start.)
