Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,488 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just a future today, and due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus, we’re using odds from Bovada.
World Series
The board’s pretty tight in the wake of the trade deadline, which is disappointing. One area of opportunity, however, is this one.
It doesn’t change our portfolio much structurally at this point. We already have this bet at much shorter odds from May. But if the Yankees become more of a factor as we pile more heavily into the World Series and LCS markets, they’re now safer to be profitable, while our other current World Series picks (Houston, Boston) sit at long enough odds (16-to-1 and 18-to-1 respectively, both from June) that this doesn’t endanger their potential profitability in the immediate term. Basically, it gives us good space to work with, and it’s more valuable than cash given its expected ROI.
Why, though, is the ROI so strong? The Yankees are three and a half games back in the wild card race. Significant, but not insurmountable, and the only team between them and the A’s is the Mariners, who don’t figure to keep doing this for two more months. They paid a high price to get these pieces, but with Anthony Rizzo, the Yankees now have the best lineup in baseball on paper, and with Andrew Heaney, their rotation gets a necessary jolt. The bullpen remains strong, with Aroldis Chapman struggling with his control but not disastrously so, a decent number of alternative options should Chapman severely struggle, and Chapman’s velocity returning after the All-Star break. It’s a tough schedule the rest of the way, but it’s even on paper with those of the A’s and Rays, and for our purposes of getting in before the odds move, the next twelve games the Yankees play will be against the Marlins, Orioles, Mariners, and Royals, with the Orioles and Mariners sets coming in the Bronx.
In short, the Yankees are alive. More likely than not to make the playoffs, at least for one more day, but alive. And should they get to October, it’ll likely mean they’re capitalizing on their talent, which will make them hard to beat, playing on the road and all.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +2000. Low confidence.
