Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,066 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just the moneyline today. Futures are off for the weekend.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 64–49–4, we’re up 11.00 units, we’re up 9% (the average line on our winners has been –107). April was great, May was bad, June was good. July’s been great (we’ve won our last five and won eight of our last nine), but we’d love to finish it even stronger.
New York (AL) @ Baltimore
Clarke Schmidt has been an unsung hero of this Yankees season, bouncing back from a terrible start to the year to exceed expectations and help keep the team afloat. He’s no ace, but he consistently gives them a chance to win, and with Tyler Wells coming off two bad starts in a row, that chance is a pretty good one tonight against the division leaders.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +109. Low confidence. (Schmidt and Wells must start.)
