Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,058 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just the moneyline today, with futures off for the weekend.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 59–47–4, we’re up 7.29 units, we’re up 7% (the average line on our winners has been –109). April was great, May was bad, June was good. July’s been about even so far.
Toronto @ Seattle
You never want to use all your best relievers and lose, but that’s what happened to the Blue Jays last night. Now, they have to bounce back in a day game against Logan Gilbert, one of the most effective pitchers in the American League. It helps Toronto to have the potential Cy Young winner starting on their side, but he hasn’t been going as deep into games as he might need to today to avoid needing to use some spent arms.
Pick: Seattle to win +112. Low confidence. (Gausman and Gilbert must start.)
