Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,042 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just one market today, with MLB futures off for the weekend.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 52–40–1, we’re up 5.84 units, we’re up 6% (the average line on our winners has been –113). April was great, May was bad, June was good.
Los Angeles @ Kansas City
We’re betting on the Royals again, and we do not expect it to go as well as it went last time. Let’s be clear about that. Still, we do see value here, especially with Julio Urías making his first start in a return from the IL and Daniel Lynch an effective manager of contact on the season, speaking relatively to the rest of the Royals’ broader situation. We’ll look for a little magic to start the month off right.
Pick: Kansas City to win +208. Low confidence. (Urías and Lynch must start.)
