Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,984 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 0.6% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
Kentucky @ Auburn
There are, of course, a lot of ways this could go, but the matchup which seems to matter is Oscar Tshiebwe against Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler down in the paint. Tshiebwe’s one of the best bigs in the country, and while Smith’s an NBA prospect and a half and Kessler’s a good player…Tshiebwe’s a lot better within this season of the college game. So, then, it’s a mismatched tag team, where Auburn has two options but Kentucky has the better single player.
Auburn’s played noticeably better since Allen Flanigan returned, and they were playing great ball beforehand as well. Still, Kentucky’s the better team right now, and while Smith and Kessler can overpower Tshiebwe in theory, Auburn’s struggled to pull in defensive rebounds on the season, and Tshiebwe’s generally done well in avoiding foul trouble.
Pick: Kentucky +3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
