Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,977 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 0.8% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
Wake Forest @ Virginia
Virginia is, simultaneously, worse than one might assume and better than one might assume. They’re not terrible, but they’re bad, especially by their own standards. Going by KenPom, this is the worst team for Tony Bennett in over a decade.
Today, though, that should still be enough. Steve Forbes is achieving great results at Wake Forest, but the Deacs just don’t have the same talent Virginia has, and their offense is at its best inside the arc, which is somewhere Virginia’s defense still excels. It might not feel like 2019 in Charlottesville, but it should be a comfortable home win for the Cavaliers, who are, despite also being on the edge of NIT contention, on the edge of ACC contention.
Pick: Virginia -3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
