Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,998 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 0.4% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
Mercer @ Chattanooga
Chattanooga has been, at times this year, good enough to warrant at-large consideration. They’ve also dropped road games now to Western Carolina and Samford.
Some of this is the peril of playing in a league with a decent share of terrible teams. Paradoxically, you can sometimes get away with less in these sorts of leagues. Lay an egg against Purdue in the Big Ten, you get beat by forty, but it’s still just a loss in most capacities, and a loss you were expected to lose. Lay an egg against, well, Mercer, and it’s a whole lot worse.
The Samford game was just this past Wednesday. It stung, I’m sure. But while it’s certainly cause for reevaluating the Mocs, that reevaluation, done right, should still land with them a larger favorite today than they are. It’s a bit trepidatious, since it figures to be a slow game, but Chattanooga should win soundly.
Pick: Chattanooga -10 (-110). Low confidence.
