Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,004 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 0.4% doesn’t sound amazing, but we’re publishing it, aren’t we?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
UCLA @ USC
It’s…basically a tossup. But if you believe in bad matchups, this is a bad matchup for UCLA’s offense.
The Bruins get a large share of their points inside the three-point arc, where USC’s defense is its most effective. The Bruins’ biggest offensive strength is protecting the ball, which is something USC doesn’t even seem to try to attack. USC’s defense is passable without creating takeaways. It should be passable tonight. And it might just be passable enough to get the Trojans their first win over a tournament team all year.
Pick: USC +2 (-110). Low confidence.
