Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 935 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Boston @ New York (AL)
Zack Godley starts tonight for the Red Sox, and it’s hard to know what to expect. He dazzled against the Mets on Monday, striking out seven and walking none over four scoreless innings. But that’s just one game. And last year, in which he bounced around both teams and roles, did not go well.
Godley’s only 30 years old. His FIP was sub-4.00 in both 2017 and 2018. It’s unreasonable to expect 1.75 strikeouts per inning. But it’s not unreasonable to hope on last year being an aberration that gives way to a more reliable 2020.
Pick: Boston to win +150. Low confidence.
