Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,084 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just the moneyline today, with futures off for the weekend (we may check on them tomorrow, but they’re at least off today). Here’s the context.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 77–57–4, we’re up 15.58 units, we’re up 11% (the average line on our winners has been –106). April was great, May was bad, June was good, July was great. August is going well so far, with a nice little win last night.
Milwaukee @ Texas
We are on the record on very much liking the Rangers at home. Well, hopefully the market has overcorrected, because this is the best option we’re seeing today.
We’re in uncharted territory with these picks. We’ve never been doing well enough to justify continuing placing moneylines into August. That hasn’t always stopped us from placing them, but we’ve crossed the Rubicon this year, and we’re having to get creative. Today, that means going with 1) a team on whom we’ve had a lot of success who 2) meets all our normal parameters and 3) is a playoff contender, something which is reassuring this time of the season as far as approach goes (we would not bet on the White Sox right now at +200 against most opponents). If that means betting against the Rangers in Arlington, that’s what it means. Our other options (the Giants, the Nationals, the Blue Jays) are more in conflict with what’s been working.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +130. Low confidence. (Peralta and Dunning must start.)
