Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,815 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
No futures today, as we don’t do those for baseball on the weekends. On single game MLB bets this year, the sample is small, but things are going well. We’re 6–3, we’re up 2.52 units, we’re up 28%. That 28% number is unlikely to be sustained, but it’s been a nice little eight days.
Texas @ Chicago (NL)
Martín Pérez had a sensational 2022, but there are questions to be asked about whether he can repeat the performance this year. His FIP and xERA, while still good, averaged to more than half a run worse than his ERA, which already points to regression before you get to aging and some natural backsliding towards what he was for the first ten years of his MLB career. The idea here is that if we’re going to make a lot out of one year of pitching, we need to do that both ways, and while Justin Steele’s 2022 was not that of Pérez, it isn’t getting enough credit in this line.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win -113. Low confidence. (Pérez and Steele must start.)
