Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 513 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But it’s not too shabby on a daily basis.
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Just one pick today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, Sagarin, Massey Ratings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
New York (AL) @ Boston
While the Red Sox are understandably unhappy with how 2019 has gone (to the degree they just fired Dave Dombrowski, in case you haven’t heard), it’s worth noting the bright spots. And worth viewing what they’ve done with some context.
The pitching staff’s problem has been starters more than relievers, at least in terms of how the two compare in fWAR against their peers. Rick Porcello has been bad. The Nathan Eovaldi bet did not pay off. Eduardo Rodriguez has been fine. But David Price and Chris Sale have been hurt. With them their normal selves, Boston’s rotation is at least a few wins better, possibly in the top third of the MLB. Their bullpen’s actually been the sixth-best by fWAR, and seventh in Win Probability Added, which runs contrary to the narrative about it being an enormous shortcoming. Yes, it could have been better had Dombrowski gone after a strong arm at the top end, but this is an instance in which a few bad performances have shaped the narrative while good ones have passed by silently.
On offense, the Red Sox have been their usual selves, ranking in the top five in wRC+ and wOBA. Mookie Betts has followed up his MVP year (185 wRC+, 10.4 fWAR) with a superstar year (134 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR so far) that, while it seems disappointing in contrast, is still worth much more than the $20M he’s being paid this year. Xander Bogaerts is having his best season yet, with a 143 wRC+, good for 6.3 fWAR to date at shortstop. Rafael Devers has arrived, to the tune of a 136 wRC+ and 5.4 fWAR.
Yes, the incoming front office will have work to do. But every team’s does. Better to be doing it with a team BaseRuns thinks is just one and a half games worse than the Yankees than any other that’ll be in transition this offseason.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-110). Low confidence.
