Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,521 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just a future today, and odds for it come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus available online.
NL East
The way our portfolio is structured, we have a lot to gain from Atlanta winning the NLCS and a lot to gain from Philadelphia winning the NL East, a pair of things that’s strongly negatively correlated. It’d be nice to have a medium amount to gain from either Atlanta or Philadelphia winning both the NLCS and the NL East, but that’s not what the market’s afforded us.
Anyway, it’s still not affording us that opportunity, but the Phillies are available at favorable odds today, and this hardly budges our profit probability in the division portion of the portfolio, simply raising our average outcome a bit.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +375. Low confidence.
