Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,539 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.3% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just a future today, and the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus.
ALCS
Chris Sale returned from the Covid IL on Friday, and while he only threw 79 pitches and had an uncharacteristically low number of strikeouts, his velocity and spin rate weren’t down too significantly. With two more starts to get right before the Wild Card Game (should the Red Sox qualify), Sale doesn’t seem like a big enough red flag to forbid betting on Boston.
The way our portfolio is structured, adding this one gives us, at least for a couple days, paths to profitability in the postseason portion that now include the Red Sox losing in the World Series to the Dodgers or Cardinals, and while that might not sound hugely significant, it raises our profitable routes by more than five percentage points. So, of today’s few positive-value options, this is the best one for us right now.
Pick: Boston to win +800. Low confidence.
