Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,023 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Game 1: Oakland @ Seattle
There’s no way around it. Matt Chapman’s injury is a disaster for the A’s. An already spotty offense just lost one of its best hitters, who happens to be the tenth-most productive defender in Major League Baseball on the year (by FanGraphs’s measurement).
The A’s have picked up Jake Lamb, and he should help the offense, but for at least the first half of today’s doubleheader, it’s Tony Kemp in the lineup, an exchange that makes the A’s somewhere around 0.6 runs poorer over nine innings.
Even considering Kemp’s insertion for Chapman, this is the best play on the board in terms of expected value. It’s only seven innings, and Marco Gonzales and Jesús Luzardo are good pitchers, but with odds as long as these, it’s worth the risk.
Pick: Over 6 (+110). Low confidence.
