Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,087 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 4% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 4%’s into a whole lot more than 4% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used with those. Data from Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
Just one pick today. If you’re looking for futures, the value’s on Houston and Atlanta, but this particular portfolio has plenty of Houston and Atlanta at this stage.
Oakland vs. Houston
Lance McCullers is healthy again. He’s back on the mound. And with very few exceptions, he’s pitched well this year.
The narrative has Houston worse than they are on paper. That’s fair. The Astros went 29-31 in the regular season. They also dealt with injuries, though, and they were effectively locked into the sixth playoff spot in the American League for weeks.
The narrative has Oakland better than they are on paper. That might not be fair. Jake Lamb is no Matt Chapman. Chris Bassitt, today’s starter, is good, but he’s not 2.29-ERA good. His FIP was 3.59 this year, and that’s his best mark since his abbreviated 2014 campaign for the White Sox, suggesting he may have overperformed reasonable expectations. He pitched splendidly in the second game of the Wild Card Series, but again, that’s one start compared to half a career’s worth of data.
I don’t like it either, but the value’s on the Astros today.
Pick: Houston to win +110. Low confidence.
