Editor’s Note: For three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,862 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 1.3% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
Iowa @ Virginia
Iowa’s offense is not better than last year’s.
But it’s close.
Over six games, the Hawkeyes have yet to score fewer than 85 points, and while that’s been against inferior competition to what they’ll face tonight, it’s still a ton of points. Their defense, though not quite as bad as last year’s, remains suspect, and with Virginia struggling defensively at points this year themselves, it’s not outrageous to think each team can get to 65 here in a game that’s close to a tossup. Hopefully it doesn’t take end-of-game free throws to hit this, but there’s always some potential there, too.
Pick: Over 129 (-110). Medium confidence.
