Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,746 published picks, not including pending futures. 2% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just a future today, and the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus.
World Series
Yes, seven units on this, through the only way to do that in these constraints we’ve set upon ourselves.
This locks us into an overall return of more than 40% on our MLB futures portfolio, which isn’t our best of all time, but is still something we’re quite happy with. Over a little more than seven months, we turned 105 units into roughly 150 units.
The value’s here on this. It’s not a pure hedge. Atlanta should be favored by more than they are, with people seeming to put a lot of stock into either 1) the Astros’ ability to find green space in the outfield or 2) the impact of Super Bowl LI on World Series CXVII. Neither of those are the most predictive predictors in the world. Might the Astros win? Yes. But Atlanta is about a 70% favorite right now, something these odds sell short.
Pick: Atlanta to win -210. Medium confidence.
Pick: Atlanta to win -210. Medium confidence.
Pick: Atlanta to win -210. Medium confidence.
Pick: Atlanta to win -210. Low confidence.
