Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi would downplay how good this is, but over a sample size of 244 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have a positive average return on investment when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning following him blindly to this point would have resulted in winning more than one lost.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
One pick for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, and Spotrac are all great.
- The writeups for each pick aren’t justifications. The justification for each is that the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it. The writeups are just words about the teams playing the games.
Chicago (AL) @ Houston
Far from the most noteworthy player on the Astros, Brad Peacock is quietly having another good year. The 31-year-old swingman hasn’t posted an ERA over 4.00 in any of the last three seasons, and while it’s currently at 4.01, FIP expects it to regress to somewhere closer to 3.45.
Peacock has been no stranger to the party as the Astros have feasted off the bottom tier of the AL Central these last few weeks. In his last two starts, which came against the Royals and Tigers, he’s struck out 15 in a combined 12 innings, allowing only one run on six hits and five walks.
Now, there’s been some good luck in there—he’s stranded an abnormally high proportion of runners, he’s gotten more outs than one would expect on balls in play, and he got to pitch against the Royals and Tigers—but perhaps more than anything, these starts demonstrate how deep the Astros are. Peacock, at best the Astros’ third starter, has already amassed 0.8 fWAR.
Pick: Houston to win -230. Low confidence.
