Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,427 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.9% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Colorado @ San Diego
First off, these are short odds, and it’s hard to get much value with short odds. This is a positive-value play, but not by all that much. Still, it’s one of the better plays on today’s board. The Padres are deservedly big favorites. Yu Darvish exited his last start on the early side, but there hasn’t been much chatter about anything being wrong with him, and it’s hard to pick a starter you’d rather have on the bump than Darvish these days.
Let’s talk about Ha-Seong Kim, though.
Ha-Seong Kim was a big pickup for Korea this winter. Just 25 years old, he’d posted wRC+’s over 100 in each of his six full seasons in the KBO, with stellar 143 and 141 marks the last two go-rounds. Since coming stateside, though, he’s only at a 51 wRC+ over 93 plate appearances, and his xwOBA almost perfectly matches his wOBA, meaning it hasn’t been bad contact luck.
The thing about this is, well, there are a few things. One is that it’s a small sample. Another is that it’s hard to adjust to MLB pitching, and we’re seeing that with his walk rate less than half what it was those last two KBO seasons while his strikeout rate’s roughly doubled. But a third is that the expectation on him has been that he’ll provide a lot of his value in the short term just an adequate-hitting, good-fielding middle infielder. Yes, the 51 wRC+ is bad, but the expectations on him weren’t to be league-average. He’s young. He’s still a prospect. And while no, he doesn’t fill the Fernando Tatís Jr.-sized hole the Padres are dealing with at the moment, he provides a lot of upside as he gets some key everyday reps. Give him time, give him space, don’t put the pressure on his shoulders. But also don’t be surprised if he shows some flashes of a breakout.
Pick: San Diego to win -210. Low confidence.
