Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,411 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 1.4% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Texas @ San Francisco
Over twelve starts in 2020, Kyle Gibson struggled to a 5.39 FIP, a 5.35 ERA, and a 5.70 xERA. Over seven starts in 2021, he’s mounted a 3.05 FIP, a 2.40 ERA, and a 2.89 xERA.
Has Gibson improved? Sure. Is it fair to assume he’ll stay at his 2021 form? No. Last year’s results were probably driven in part by the small sample size. The same is true this season.
Pick: San Francisco -1.5 (+155). Low confidence.
