Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,457 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.8% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
This line comes from Bovada because it’s not a standard market, and is therefore not included in the Vegas consensus.
Game 1: Atlanta @ New York (NL)
Jacob deGrom is the best pitcher alive, which means he’s probably the best pitcher ever. We’re probably seeing the best pitcher ever pitch this game.
But how good is he?
So far on the season, he’s got a 1.25 xERA and a 0.80 FIP. If he’s that good, then against an Atlanta offense (slightly above-average, to date and on paper) hitting at a pitcher’s park but with the wind blowing out (all of this together works out to something like an average offense at an average park) he should be expected to allow about one run over nine innings of work. In just a seven-inning game, that becomes just 0.8 runs.
Is he really that good, though? It’s possible he is. It’s more likely, though, that he’s not much better than a 2.00-FIP or 2.00-xERA pitcher, simply because pitchers better than that quite rarely exist. And even if you assign deGrom a 1.90 FIP, which is where FanGraphs’s most aggressive projection for him, Steamer, has him, there’s a 50/50 shot Atlanta gets two across this afternoon, even assuming deGrom throws a complete game. A 50/50 shot at +110 is the best value on today’s board.
Pick: Atlanta to score over 1.5 (+110). Low confidence.
