Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,068 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just the moneyline today. We’re not seeing much value overall in the MLB futures markets, we especially aren’t seeing it in places that would be new for us, and we still need to take a few days off to hit our intended unit spend during the regular season.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 65–50–4, we’re up 11.09 units, we’re up 9% (the average line on our winners has been –106). April was great, May was bad, June was good, July’s been great. We’d like to leave it on a good note.
Anaheim @ Atlanta
We’re a little cornered here—it’s not a great board today—but we do like the value we’re seeing on the Angels. Chase Silseth is a big unknown who was promising in his last MLB start, shutting down the Yankees over five and two thirds, while old Charlie Morton’s coming off a rough outing his last time out. We look through options from shortest odds to longest, so this was towards the bottom of our list, but it’s our play today.
Pick: Anaheim to win +185. Low confidence. (Silseth and Morton must start.)
