Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,483 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Washington @ Philadelphia
The Phillies bullpen is bad. It’s near the bottom of the league in FIP, near the bottom of the league in ERA, and near the bottom of the league in Win Probability Added (in its case, subtracted). This is a matter of especial concern tonight, with starter Spencer Howard not having pitched through the order twice all year.
The Phillies bullpen is bad. But it shouldn’t be this bad. FanGraphs has it rated the 14th-best in baseball on paper, and while only Ranger Suárez and Connor Brogdon have outperformed their expectations so far, it’s worth noting that each of the six significant relievers in the Philly ‘pen (Suárez, Brogdon, José Alvarado, Archie Bradley, Héctor Neris, Brandon Kintzler) has an xERA better than their FIP. FIP and xERA are comparably predictive, but given the bullpen’s collective ERA is only narrowly worse than its FIP, this would imply that each metric expects at least a little positive regression in the ERA department.
Pick: Philadelphia to win -120. Low confidence.
