Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,955 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 0.7% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
Wisconsin @ Purdue
Purdue might be without Caleb Furst again, but the game’s at Mackey Arena and the Boilermakers look entirely recovered from that rough little Iowa/Rutgers/NC State stretch in December. Just because they looked bad against those legitimate teams doesn’t mean they can’t beat legitimate teams soundly. Look at what they did to Florida State, and UNC and Villanova if you count those. Wisconsin’s pesky, but their shooting can be awful at times, and while Purdue isn’t defense-first, it’s offense is good enough to pull away from teams in a hurry.
Pick: Purdue -12.5 (-110). Low confidence.
