Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,999 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 0.3% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
Arizona @ Arizona State
On Saturday night, Arizona State finally, finally, played like the team they were expected to be—a mediocre but occasionally competitive Pac-12 squad with an outside shot at the bubble. They beat UCLA in three ugly overtimes, and now, the market’s high on them to potentially repeat the performance against their in-state rival, who’s coming off back-to-back home wins against the conference’s other two projected NCAA Tournament teams.
There’s an argument to be made for this as a trap game. Arizona is, after all, coming off those two wins, and now plays a team on the road that’s perhaps finally ready to believe in itself (in ASU’s defense, they’ve played one of the hardest schedules in the nation—KenPom has their slate second in the country). Factor in that to a team as young as Arizona, an in-state rivalry might not mean as much as to a senior-heavy group, and yeah, they might take Arizona State lightly. Here’s the thing with that, though:
Arizona can take Arizona State lightly. And they can still probably cover.
Pick: Arizona -12 (-110). Low confidence.
