Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 871 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 7% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. More broadly, it’s adequate when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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One pick for tonight.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Oklahoma State @ Kansas
As large as this line is, it could be larger. After Kansas finally received its coronation this weekend as the best team in the country, it seems some are expecting a trap game for the Jayhawks. I’m not here to dispute the possibility of 18-23 year-old’s experiencing a letdown against a dangerous opponent after a momentous victory. It’s just unclear that Kansas would experience the letdown to a greater extent than Oklahoma State, who just blew Oklahoma out of the water for their fourth win in six games. Yes, the Pokes are dangerous, but in Allen Fieldhouse, Kansas is at least 15 points better.
Pick: Kansas -14.5 (-110). Low confidence.
