Editor’s Note: For about two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,240 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Lipscomb @ Southeast Missouri State
There isn’t much happening today in college basketball, but there’s value here, with an underwhelming Lipscomb team visiting Cape Girardeau to play an outright bad SEMO. It’s not pretty, and Lipscomb’s early results have not been at all promising, but they’ve played some good and decent teams, and their sample’s large enough to have some faith in their projection, while on the SEMO side, even the encouraging signs haven’t really changed their picture.
Pick: Lipscomb -4 (-110). Low confidence.
