Editor’s Note: For three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,897 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 1.3% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
Northern Illinois @ Chicago State
Chicago State is…not an underdog?
It’s a weird game. It’s at noon on a Monday. It’s at home for the Cougars, but not too far away from the Huskies. Chicago State might still be missing Bryce Johnson, their highest-rated offensive player on KenPom.
The fact it’s a Chicago State game is odd in its own regard—the Cougars have routinely been one of the worst teams in Division I men’s basketball over the last decade or so, hitting especial lows in recent years. Often, they’re hard to even gauge—so bad they break ratings systems—but this year, they’re 3-6, their wins are all against D-I foes, and they’ve covered the spread in seven of their nine games.
But while Chicago State’s at home and Chicago State has the better overall record and Chicago State is much better than usual…they’re still not good. Ratings systems adjust. Ratings systems update. And ratings systems, or at least KenPom, still have NIU as the better team, by about six points on a neutral court and three points here, on the road. If you get a chance to bet against Chicago State straight-up, I think you still take it, and with tonight’s board miniscule, we’ll take it.
Pick: Northern Illinois to win -110. Medium confidence.
