Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,501 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
The odds for the future come from Bovada because there’s no consistently current/accurate Vegas consensus online.
NLCS
The Dodgers are not inevitable. They trail the Giants by four games, and this week is daunting, with an East Coast swing lining up potential pitching opponents Aaron Nola, Kyle Gibson, Ranger Suárez, Tylor Megill, Taijuan Walker, Carlos Carrasco; while the Giants get to host the Rockies and the Diamondbacks. Still, the worst conceivable case for the Dodgers is still a wild card game at home against likely the Padres or Reds with Max Scherzer or Walker Buehler or hell I’d take Julio Urías if I had to given the year he’s having, followed by playoff baseball they’re accustomed to, just without home field advantage.
The Dodgers are not inevitable. But they’re a big enough favorite in a flawed-enough league (Can the Giants keep hitting like this? Can the Brewers start hitting like the Giants? Surely the Phillies aren’t the second-best team in the NL, right?) that it bolsters a lot of profitability probability numbers if you can get them in your portfolio, and at this price, it’s low value but it’s positive value, which is a rarity when it comes to the Dodgers.
Doubling up on this for the sake of having four profitable options (LAD/MIL/PHI/NYM) in the NLCS portion of the portfolio (while preserving the undefeated high confidence record).
Pick: Los Angeles to win +150. Medium confidence.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +150. Medium confidence.
