Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,089 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just the moneyline today. We’ve got a few futures days off remaining on weekdays, and with no great value out there that’d be unique within our portfolio, we’re going to let it rest today.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 79–57–4, we’re up 17.63 units, we’re up 13% (the average line on our winners has been –106). April was great, May was bad, June was good, July was great. August has been good to us, but we need to finish the job.
Miami @ San Diego
It’s a weird game in San Diego tonight. Ryan Weathers is evidently on his way up from AAA to start from the Marlins in a return to his former franchise. Blake Snell was expected by some to start for the Padres, but Michael Wacha’s in there instead. The teams are playing on the back of a hurricane which evidently must not have hit San Diego too hard?
Even with all the uncertainty, we like the Padres here, or we at least like them more than the alternatives. They’re scuffling, yes, but they’re still so good on paper, and Wacha was as solid in his return from the IL last week as he was before he went on it a couple months ago. It’s a low payout, it’s not exciting, but we think this is the move.
Pick: San Diego to win –185. Low confidence. (Weathers and Wacha must start.)
