Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,503 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.7% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
The odds for this future comes from Bovada because there’s no consistently current/accurate Vegas consensus online.
NLCS
After being rather out of the race at points this season, Atlanta leads the NL East, and there are elements of the National League playoff picture that make it appear somewhat open. The Giants are still much better on the field than they are on paper, which might hold up but might come crashing down. The Dodgers may face a single-elimination game to even get to the Giants. The Reds may be the Dodgers’ opponent in that game, given the Padres’ rotation is so pained that they’ve brought on Jake Arrieta, for whom even the Cubs couldn’t find innings anymore. The Brewers have three great pitchers, none of whom have pitched as many innings as they’ll have to pitch to get through October. With Charlie Morton, Max Fried, and a possibly soon-to-return Ian Anderson at the top of their rotation while Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies anchor the offense, Atlanta looks like a believable contender, with this providing low but positive value and helping shore up our overall NLCS situation (which is that we have a big hole where the Giants would be, a small hole where the Padres would be, and upside from the Phillies and Brewers, one of whom should be in the NLCS in about 75% or 80% of scenarios).
Pick: Atlanta to win +1100. Low confidence.
