Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,371 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
New York (AL) @ Baltimore
Matt Harvey has a 5.12 ERA. His FIP is only 3.41, though, and his .320 xwOBA is both roughly average and roughly in line with his number from 2018, the last time he made a full season’s worth of outings. This isn’t to say that you should expect Harvey to throw a gem tonight. But against a line where even his 5.43 projected FIP (per FanGraphs’s depth charts) looks good, it’s not a bad bet that he’ll keep it close.
Pick: Baltimore +1.5 (-115). Low confidence.
