Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,519 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just a future today, and the odds for it come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus.
World Series
One way I like to look at our MLB futures portfolio is to split it up into two portions—division futures and postseason futures—and then evaluate the profit probability of each portion. In the postseason portion, I do this by finding routes that are certain to be profitable or unprofitable, then adding up those routes’ individual probabilities. For instance, as currently constructed: If the Red Sox or Yankees win the World Series, our postseason portion is profitable. If Atlanta or Milwaukee wins the NLCS, our postseason portion is profitable. If a team from the NL West wins the World Series, our postseason portion is unprofitable.
This Astros World Series future is available at low but positive value today, and it gives us a new profitable path—the Astros winning the World Series. With this in the fold, the postseason portion has profitable routes accounting for 59.3% of scenarios, unprofitable routes accounting for 28.0% of scenarios, and 12.7% unevaluated (these are a mix of narrow windows like, “if the Phillies win the World Series over the Red Sox, we’re profitable, if the Phillies win the World Series over anyone else, we’re unprofitable”). That’s a solid place to be with a whole month left in the regular season.
Pick: Houston to win +600. Low confidence.
