Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,532 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.4% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Minnesota @ Toronto
Hyun Jin Ryu had a bad time his last game out, getting lit up by, of all teams, the Baltimore Orioles, who scored seven runs off the starter and chased him in the third. It was a rough day, but the question at the moment is whether it has any bearing on his performance tonight.
It’s hard to believe it does. Starts aren’t purely independent from one another—there’s certainly some bearing of recent performance on current performance—but they’re still rather isolated events. In Ryu’s second-to-last trip out there, he shut down the Yankees over six innings. That didn’t translate to dominating the Orioles.
Against the Orioles, Ryu’s velocity and spin rate weren’t down a concerning amount. And while the Blue Jays didn’t cover the run line, for whatever it’s worth, they still won.
Pick: Toronto -1.5 (-120). Low confidence.
