Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 568 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But it’s not too shabby on a daily basis.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
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One pick today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
NLDS Game Two: Washington @ Los Angeles
For the Dodgers, it’s Clayton Kershaw on the mound, with Gavin Lux and Joc Pederson starting in place of David Freese and Chris Taylor from Game One. For the Nationals, it’s Stephen Strasburg on the mound, with Kurt Suzuki and Ryan Zimmerman in for Yan Gomes and Asdrubal Cabrera. The Dodgers are the better team. Strasburg’s the better pitcher. We’ll see what happens.
Pick: Washington to win (+143). Low confidence.
