Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,735 published picks, not including pending futures. 2% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Houston @ Atlanta
Ian Anderson’s numbers weren’t as good as Luis Garcia’s on the season, and we don’t have a whole lot of other data to go off of with either, making that a relevant sample, and not an altogether small one. Atlanta has the bullpen advantage, which is a big deal in an NL park, but Houston has the offensive advantage, which is a big deal anywhere.
Pick: Houston to win +100. Low confidence.
