Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,648 published picks, not including pending futures. 0.3% isn’t amazing, but it’s positive, and we are nearly locked into a positive return from our outstanding futures. Make of that what you will.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We have a future again today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Boston @ Houston
We’re switching sides. After riding overs the last few games with these guys, we’re back on the under, because…
The Astros bullpen has been pitching well.
That’s not actually the reason. The reason has more to do with FanGraphs’s projections of each starting pitcher, how those projections compare to the team’s overall projections, what red flags we do and don’t see.
But the Astros bullpen has been pitching well. And Luis Garcia’s rough postseason? It’s a pretty darn small sample right now.
Maybe this blows up on us. But don’t be surprised to see a little change of pace tonight.
Pick: Under 9 (-110). Low confidence.
World Series
Our choices are either to pour more into the Red Sox or to hedge a bit more on the Dodgers, and the utility we get from the latter scenario becoming a winner is such that this is the right play for our portfolio, even if it’s not a great play overall (it slightly overprices Los Angeles). Basically, we want these picks to have a profitable track record, and this goes further towards locking us into that.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +375. Low confidence.
