Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 575 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 3% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But it’s not too shabby on a daily basis.
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One pick today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Virginia @ Miami
Miami’s great strength this year is stopping the run, which won’t come much in handy against a team with one of the higher pass-to-run ratios in the NCAA. Still, Miami’s simply the better team in this one, inconsistent though they may be. Even in last week’s disappointing loss to Virginia Tech, the Hurricanes outgained the Hokies by more than 200 yards. Turnovers were the issue there, but against a team in the bottom half of the FCS in generating interceptions, and without Jarren Williams, who threw three of the four picks against Tech despite only attempting seven passes before exiting, it’s unlikely they’ll be as much a problem tonight.
Pick: Miami -2 (-110). Low confidence.
