Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,890 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,249 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). We are profitable all-time, but only narrowly.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, but mostly futures.
Just a college football pick tonight. Here’s the context on that market for us.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 52–47–2. We’re up 1.15 units and up 1%. That’s a big sample, and we still don’t know if it’s going badly or going well.
Colorado State @ Wyoming
We don’t like the BC/Syracuse game, because Movelor loves Syracuse’s line but Syracuse has been bafflingly bad, and BC seems to have momentum, and this is a point in the season when in other sports, we sometimes see some sort of “stretch run” phenomenon take hold.
We also don’t love the Wyoming/Colorado State game, where Colorado State is a puzzling team and Wyoming was overhyped for a minute but also isn’t outright bad. We do think Wyoming should be favored, and probably by a little more, but even if that last part isn’t true, this is not a bad price.
Pick: Wyoming to win –235. Low confidence.
