Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident guy-who-knows-numbers. He’d downplay how good this is, but over a sample size of 240 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 1% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 53% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
One pick for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, and Spotrac are all great.
- The writeups for each pick aren’t justifications. The justification for each is that the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it. The writeups are just words about the teams playing the games.
Kansas City @ Anaheim
Matt Harvey’s time with the Angels has not gone as well as either party had hoped. Harvey has failed to finish the fifth inning in five of his eight outings. His ERA’s a saddening 6.39. His FIP, while better than his ERA, is still a high 5.39. The Angels are paying $11 million this year to a pitcher who, by the more sympathetic of fWAR and bWAR, has been merely replacement-level.
At some point, it may be time for Anaheim to move on from their investment, as painful as that is, and as loathe as management seems to letting go (Albert Pujols is also replacement-level, and hasn’t put up a positive fWAR since 2016’s paltry 0.8). But for now, as the Angels tread water and watch the American League contenders run away from them, Matt Harvey continues to go out there and pitch.
Pick: Kansas City to win +150. Low confidence.
