Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,454 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.7% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Milwaukee @ Colorado
Corbin Burnes’s cutter, his primary pitch, has lost a few hundred RPM over his last three or four starts, a period over which the velocity has risen. This doesn’t necessarily mean Burnes is less effective, and he had some room to work with—his 1.52 xERA and 1.02 FIP far outpace even expectations he’ll be phenomenal. But. He did have his worst outing of the year on Saturday, and there’s a reason expectations are never as high as a 1.52 xERA or a 1.02 FIP, that reason being that those are outrageously good numbers and therefore very difficult to achieve.
If you plug Burnes in for a little less than six innings with a 2.83 FIP (the FIP coming from FanGraphs), this is a solid play. The best on today’s board.
Pick: Over 10.5 (-105). Low confidence.
