Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,447 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.8% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
The line on this one comes from Bovada because it’s not one listed on the Vegas consensus.
Pittsburgh @ Milwaukee
There are a few ways to look at this.
One is that the Pirates have scored one or no runs in 26% of their games this year, and that facing a pitcher as good as Brandon Woodruff increases that total.
One is that the Pirates have only scored an average of 3.5 runs/game this year, and that facing a pitcher as good as Brandon Woodruff decreases that projection.
Personally, my numbers indicate the number to expect from the Pirates is 3.0, with Colin Moran’s potential absence bumping that down to 2.5 in the event Moran does sit. You need the probability of the Pirates scoring one or zero to be at or below 32% to make this a good play. Even if the median projection is 2.5, two runs only needs to be marginally more likely than zero or one, respectively, to make that number work. The way distributions function, two is at least marginally more likely than one, and substantially more likely than zero.
Not great value (hence, low confidence), but the best we can find on the board today.
Pick: Pittsburgh to score over 1.5 runs (-210). Low confidence.
