Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,487 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Cleveland @ Chicago (AL)
Low return, so low confidence, and Lance Lynn’s fly ball tendencies do cause some concern on a night when the wind’s blowing out to right, but the guy’s been so consistent this year (only three starts with a single-game FIP at or above 5.00), and so consistently good (season-to-date: 2.71 xERA, 3.15 FIP) that it’s hard to see the White Sox losing tonight against J.C. Mejia, especially since if anyone’s roster’s going to be depleted by gametime of these two, it’s going to be Cleveland’s.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win -215. Low confidence.
